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The Ultimate Source for your Ph.D. in Pigskin |
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Are We in for a Brady-Brett Super Bowl? Believe it or not, the game's most important position has historically not been a great matchup in the Super Bowl. Very rarely have we seen a game between the greats, like Bradshaw-Staubach or Montana-Marino. Most of the time, we see one quarterback severely overmatched, or two that make us scratch our heads, such as Rich Gannon vs. Brad Johnson and Kerry Collins vs. Trent Dilfer. This year, however, is setting up to be a clash between what could be two of the top five quarterbacks in NFL history. I can see it now, almost as if promoted by Don King, "The Gunslinger vs. The Golden Boy." Think about it, can you remember a better head-to-head battle between two quarterbacks just biding their time, waiting to be fitted for gold jackets? In 1998, John Elway was nowhere near the field general he once was when he squared off against the highly-favored Packers and Brett Favre. As a matter of fact, he was simply "the guy who handed off to Terrell Davis" by that time in his career. Bradhshaw-Staubach? Nah, neither are considered in the same tier as this possible encounter. The only one I can see with the same cache is Montana-Marino. Both of them were in their prime and ran pass-happy offenses. But, there was a problem. Marino didn't have the surrounding cast, and the Dolphins were buried, 38-16. Picks appear in bold. San Diego at New England (-14) Obviously, both teams are drastically different than when the Pats whooped the Bolts 38-14 in front of a national television audience back in week two. For New England, two of their defensive mainstays, Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison, didn't play due to injuries. On the other side, San Diego acquired Chris Chambers late in the season to open up the passing game and he has done just that. Also, All-Pro cornerback Antonio Cromartie was just the nickel back at the time, but he will be key in determining Randy Moss' effect on the outcome. However, the most important change may have come on Thursday, when Philip Rivers was downgraded to doubtful with the knee injury he suffered against the Colts last week. While Billy Volek looked good for a couple of drives in Indianapolis, I'm predictably skeptical on the positive impact he may have against the best defensive coach of the past 20 years. Because of that, I'm unsure of how effective LaDainian Tomlinson will be when faced with eight-man fronts. I think Bill Belichick will try to negate San Diego's wideouts with man coverage plus free safety help, and a linebacker assigned to Antonio Gates, who just isn't the same with the toe injury. In other words, they're going to dare Billy Volek to beat them. Unfortunately for San Diego, that doesn't bode well for the Super Bowl hopes. Defensively, I think the Chargers are built for a game like this. They will try to pressure Brady with their active and athletic front seven. But, as we've seen in the past, you have to pick your poison against Tom Brady. If they come after him, which I think they will, they'll need the best game of the year from their secondary as a whole in order to pull this one off. In addition, don't think for a second it was a coincidence that the Patriots ran the ball last week. New England's brain trust wanted to serve notice to their AFC opponent that they can, and will, move the ball with the ground game. Overall, I like the Pats for a few reasons. First, I was prepared to take San Diego and the points until Rivers was listed as doubtful. I don't trust Billy Volek against that defense and they simply can't beat them with LT by himself. Second, while Norv Turner has been a great coach this year, and the last couple months in particular, he's shown a tendency in the past to struggle making in-game adjustments, which is a must against Belichick. New York Giants at Green Bay (-7) Once again, these two teams met in week two, with the Packers winning 35-13 after three fourth quarter touchdowns went unmatched by the G-Men. And similarly, key personnel were not available to both teams. For the Giants, Michael Strahan was coming off a hold-out situation and was struggling with his conditioning. More importantly, Brandon Jacobs was injured and missed in what was one of Eli Manning's less memorable starts. The biggest difference-maker for the Packers came, ironically, as a gift from New York. Ryan Grant, who was the fourth-string back for Tom Coughlin, was traded to Green Bay in October for a sixth-round pick. Ted Thompson, one of the most underrated general managers in the NFL, should be credited with one of the most significant in-season trades in NFL history. Brett Favre has to be licking his proverbial chops when he checks out New Yorks' depth chart. Decimated by injuries, it's hard to imagine the Giants' secondary holding up the the onslaught they'll face when trying to cover the likes of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. They were able to do so against the Cowboys because Dallas loves to run deep patterns that allowed the front four to get pressure on Tony Romo. However, Green Bay plays the typical west coast offense relying on quick slants and shorter routes. Defensively, Green Bay is blessed with two cornerbacks that can neutralize even above-average wide receivers single-handedly. I see them doing just that against an aging Amani Toomer and hobbled Plaxico Burress. In essence, the result of this game will come down to the Giants' ability to run the ball. If Ahman Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs can keep Brett Favre off the field, they've got a chance to win. Ultimately, I don't see that happening. Last Weeks Record: 2-2-0 Overall Record: 140-115-9 |