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After looking at the schedule this week, I noticed that there are a lot of bad teams playing good teams - more so than usual. The proof is that there are more spreads over a touchdown in week seven than in the last two weeks combined. Obviously, that makes me, and just about every other prognosticator in the country, pretty nervous. When you consider that the record of teams against those big spreads are 5-1 in weeks five and six, it makes you rethink the landscape of the league and who can cover the points.

I'm going with six out of the seven favorites in these matchups this week in the hopes that the teams I feel are really good will finally start putting some of these games away early....hopefully.

Picks appear in bold.

Baltimore at Miami (-3)
The only reason I'm taking the Dolphins is because the Ravens' defensive backfield is so nicked up. Without a strong defensive backfield, I can't see them stacking up against the run.

Dallas (-7) at St. Louis
Two factors at work here: 1. coming off of an emotional win at Washington, I think the Rams could suffer a letdown, and 2. whether Tony Romo plays or not, the Cowboys will rely more on the running game, which is something they should have been doing all along.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Chicago
In so many ways, these teams mirror each other. Both of them are good against the run, have strong running games, and shaky quarterback situation. However, I like the Vikings because they're been slightly more consistent offensively.

New Orleans at Carolina (-3)
The Panthers will come out pretty angry after the egg they laid in Tampa. Also, unfortunately for the Saints, I certainly don't expect Jake Delhomme to make the mistakes he made against the Bucs.

San Diego (-1) at Buffalo
I like the Bills - they're a good up-and-coming team, but Norv Turner and the Chargers are starting to turn things around. In addition, I think Ted Cotrell, San Diego's defensive coordinator, is going to confuse the developing Trent Edwards.

Tennessee (-8) at Kansas City
Without Larry Johnson, the Chiefs will surrender to the Titans.

San Francisco at New York Jets (-10)
After spending as much money as the 49ers have to stop the pass, ranking 20th is certainly not what they had in mind. I just can't see them flying all the way across the country and putting up much of a fight. Look for the Giants to take out their frustration from Monday night against Mike Nolan's crew.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) at Cincinnati
No Carson Palmer, no chance.

Detroit at Houston (-9.5)
The only reason the Lions were in that game against the Vikings last week was because Minnesota let them hang around by committing three turnovers and almost 100 yards in penalties. Also, the Lions are susceptible to the big play, and that's the one thing the Texans have had this year.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland
I'm surprised that the line in this one is so low, especially considering the discontent and division in the Raiders' locker room.

Cleveland (+8) at Washington
I think the Redskins will win, but they haven't won by more than seven points all year. Moreover, I think the Browns will use last week's win over the Giants to start plying better.

Indianapolis (-1) at Green Bay
Am I missing something here?

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-10.5)
As with the San Francisco-New York Jets' game, I can't see the Seahawks flying across the country and putting up much of a fight. Of course, Matt Hasselbeck being out doesn't help much either.

Denver (+3) at New England
These are not your father's Patriots, people.

Last Week: 6-8
Season: 44-42-2