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It's always nice to follow up a really bad week with a good one. It lets you know that you still might know something about this game. Seriously, this young season is one of the more unpredictable ones I can remember. The flogging taken by the Patriots two weeks ago in Miami still resonates every time I sit down to make my picks. Follow that up with Kansas City beating Denver last week and it makes you wonder who you can trust.

Think about it, some of the better teams in the league this year are coached by Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Tom Coughlin, and John Fox - all of whom were on the proverbial "hot seat" within the last year. Since I wouldn't really trust any of them in a big game, it makes it difficult to figure out who are the teams you can count on. Then, you've got the "reliable" guys, the ones who you can always count on to put you more than a few games over the .500 mark for any year, right? You know, Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy. Well, they're a combined 2-4 against the spread and the two that won made any player want to pull their hair out, since they weren't decided until the waning seconds of each game.

So, pop another antacid, stop eating spicy food, realize that your money is probably safer even in this week's stock market, and enjoy another wonderful week of NFL wagering!

***If you didn't pick up on it, the last sentence was dripping with sarcasm and a deep resentment towards Paul Tagliabue's dream of parity.

 

Picks appear in bold.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit
I really don't like this game. The Lions have been so much worse than I thought they'd be and the Bears are just inconsistent. I'm simply going with the team I think has the potential to play better. How's that for a confident pick!

Atlanta (+7.5) at Green Bay
There are two reasons I'm taking the Falcons: 1. the Packers haven't been able to stop the run this year and I like the way Michael Turner is playing right now, and 2. Aaron Rodgers' shoulder injury with which, at this point, Green Bay doesn't know if he can play.

San Diego (-6) at Miami
While they haven't been overwhelming, I think the Chargers are starting to get their swagger back and Philip Rivers is playing very well.

Seattle at New York Giants (-7)
The line in this game has been decreasing all week long and I have no idea why people would be putting all that money on the Seahawks. Especially with the Giants coming off a bye.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3)
In 2006, the Texans were the last team to beat the Colts and they did it because they controlled the clock against a Bob-Sanders-less Colts defense by running the ball. I'm pretty sure Gary Kubiak pulled that gameplan out of mothballs and will use it again.

Tennessee (-2.5) at Baltimore
I know that Joe Flacco and the Ravens looked great against the Steelers on Monday night, but they're going up against a better defense and without the charge of an inter-divisional game.

Kansas City at Carolina (-9.5)
There's no doubt that the Chiefs are a better team with Damon Huard at the helm, but he can't do anything for their 29th-ranked run defense.

Washington (+6.5) at Philadelphia
Don't get me wrong, I think the Eagles will squeak this one out, but without a healthy Brian Westbrook, it won't be by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay at Denver (-3)
A lot has been made this week about the Broncos' flop against Kansas City, and how Monte Kiffin will be able to put the clamps down on Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. I think they'll have success, but their offense simply won't be able to score enough points.

Cincinnati at Dallas (-16)
Believe it or not, this decision was pretty difficult. That's an awful lot of points. But in the end, the thought of the Bengals' defense stopping Tony Romo and the 'Boys more than a couple of times was just too hard to imagine.

Buffalo at Arizona (-1)
There's really no matchup that I can point to or statistical reasoning for this one - just a hunch.

New England (-3) at San Francisco
If someone would have told me this line at the beginning of the season, I would still be laughing. However, even without Tom Brady, I'm still laughing.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4)
The Jaguars secondary is severely undermanned, missing Reggie Nelson and Drayton Florence. In addition, Rashean Mathis will play, but is still not 100 percent. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Steelers' running game will rely on Mewelde Moore, and with Ben Roethlisberger looking out-of-sorts, I think they'll struggle mightily against an improving Jacksonville squad.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3)
With each teams' strengths being on the other side of the ball, it comes down to who I trust more - the Saints' offense or the Vikings' defense. As you can see, I'm just not convinced that Jared Allen will be able to put enough pressure on Drew Brees to make a difference.

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 30-29-1