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I know this sounds ridiculous, but I'm Irish, so superstition is a way of life. I had my first decent record of the year last week while not making my usual sarcastic/smart-ass comments here at the top. Thus, the ritual will be postponed until I go back to making crappy picks that don't work out.

Picks appear in bold.

New York Jets at New England (-3)
After making my midseason picks last week, a buddy of mine made a very compelling argument for Bill Belichick for Coach of the Year. For the most part, his point was based on the injuries the Pats have sustained and that they're still tied for first. I agreed that he's done a great job, but I just can't get over what Mike Smith has done in Atlanta.

Denver (+6.5) at Atlanta
Speaking of the Falcons, they're 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of over 13 points a game. So, why am I going with the Broncos? Two reasons: those victories are over teams with a combined record of 10-26, and I think the comeback win engineered by Jay Cutler against the Browns will lift Denver out of the funk they've been playing in for the last five weeks.

Houston (+9.5) at Indianapolis
It's not that I think the Texans are that good, but surprisingly, the Colts have been very average at home this year. In addition, I think Houston will be motivated to try and get the victory they should have had in early October.

Oakland at Miami (-10)
Over the last three games, the Raiders have been outscored 70-16, and two of them were at home. Now they have to travel across the country for an early game against the Fish. If they haven't given up already, they will after this one.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)
In their last two games, the Packers have gone into two tough venues against two good teams (Tennessee and Minnesota), and lost by a combined total of four points. I think the jolt of home cooking gives them a boost.

Baltimore at New York Giants (-6.5)
Don't get me wrong, I like the way the Ravens, specifically Joe Flacco, are progressing, but I'd give up single digit points with the Giants against anyone right now. Trust me, they'll be able to run the ball against Baltimore, and that will be the difference.

Detroit at Carolina (-14)
On the flip side, I just might be willing to take anyone with any spread against the Lions right now.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Kansas City
Sure, the Saints are 0-4 on the road, but it's against teams with a combined record of 24-12. Also, I really like the matchup of Drew Brees against Herm Edwards' young defense.

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati
There are very few constants in the NFL, especially this year, but the Eagles consistently putting bad teams away early is one of them.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-4)
The Vikings have been living life on the edge recently. Only two of their games this year have been decided by more than seven points. In their last three wins, disastrous mistakes by their opponents (Detroit, Houston, and Green Bay) have cost them dearly. I just don't see the Bucs making those kinds of errors.

Arizona (-3) at Seattle
I realize that they didn't look good against the 49ers on Monday night, but this line surprises me a little bit. Sure, Matt Hasselbeck will be back in the lineup, but I can't believe he won't be rusty.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-6.5)
Maybe I'm making a little too much out of it, but the play of Shaun Hill on Monday night set a tone for the rest of the season for San Francisco. His first down run without a helmet was a perfect example of what Mike Singletary is looking for and the team played better afterwards.

Tennessee (-2.5) at Jacksonville
I've heard quite a few people claiming that this will be the week the Titans lose. I just can't see the Jaguars being able to move the ball consistently against Albert Haynesworth and the rest of Jeff Fisher's defense.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
This is the first of two really tough games this weekend. It's difficult because I really don't like the way Ben Roethlisberger is playing right now and the Chargers have just been so inconsistent. I give the edge to Pittsburgh because they'll be able to run the ball more effectively than San Diego.

Dallas (+1.5) at Washington
And this is the other. Don't get me wrong, the Redskins are the better team right now, but Clinton Portis' injury really puts them in a bind. In addition, the Cowboys are getting some key players back - Tony Romo, Kyle Kosier, and Terence Newman - and Jason Witten's ribs are feeling better.

Cleveland (+5) at Buffalo
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Trent Edwards hasn't been the same since the concussion he suffered against the Cardinals in week five. Conversely, the Browns have been getting better on both sides of the ball. Also, I like the way Cleveland called a "safe" game plan for Brady Quinn last week without giving up the opportunities for big plays. I think he'll be even better this week.

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 75-67-2