Home

After 25 or so years of predicting NFL games, you learn a few things. I've come to the following realizations:

One, you need to try as hard as you can to keep up with player/team transactions. It's incredibly important to know who is playing where and how they will affect their teams.

Two, make sure you know the numbers. A good prognosticator will always know when a good rushing team is going up against a bad rush defense and weigh that against the spread.

Three, know the intangibles. In other words, if a team shows poorly on the road, plays better in a dome, or performs extremely well in prime time, make sure you're aware of those trends and react accordingly.

Four, and this one is by far the most important of them all, disregard all of the above and invest your money in a mutual fund, instead. Seriously, I've spent too many sleepless nights wondering why Brett Favre had to throw that interception that led to a touchdown with only two minutes left and a 10 point lead when the spread was seven.

That being said, here's the first of twenty weeks of personal torture known only as the Weekly Flagellation Picks.

Picks appear in bold.

Washington at New York Giants (-4)
Never, ever bet against the defending Super Bowl champs in their season-opener on national TV. Yep, even if they're coached by Tom Coughlin.

Cincinnati (-1) at Baltimore
I want to know what I'm missing here. The Ravens are starting a rookie quarterback, their defense is aging, they have a new head coach, and Cincinnati is coming off of a turbulent offseason that they're probably thrilled is finally over. Is there an easier line on the board?

Detroit (-3) at Atlanta
Apparently there is. Atlanta has the potential to be the worst team in the league this year and the Lions look to be turning things in the right direction, despite Matt Millen's fine effort to ruin them.

New York Jets (-3) at Miami
Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre...I just thought I'd throw that in for those of you who didn't get enough of him during the offseason. Now, for those of us not named Deanna Favre, take the Jets and thank Vegas for the easy money.

Kansas City at New England (-15.5)
Even though I'm still pissed at Bill Belicheck and Co. for crushing the greatest prediction in the history of prognosticating (for those of you who are new to the site and/or Sunday radio show, I said that the Patriots would go undefeated in week two of last season), it doesn't provoke me to do something incredibly stupid.

Houston (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Unlike most of the pundits I speak to, I'm not enamored with this Steeler team. In addition, I think the Texans are going to keep getting better. Don't be surprised if Houston pulls this one out, straight up.

Jacksonville (-3) at Tennessee
Seriously, here's hoping that Richard Collier makes a full recovery.

Seattle (+1) at Buffalo
The Bills are still a little too young to beat a veteran, perennial playoff team like the Seahawks. Plus, this will be a highly emotional season for Seattle as they want to send out Mike Holmgren a winner.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)
I said last year that the most devastating injury for any team was the Saints losing Deuce McAllister. He simply opens up everything that Sean Payton likes to do and makes Reggie Bush that much more effective. Getting him back healthy will lead to a big season for the Big Easy.

St. Louis at Philadelphia (-7.5)
I just don't like the Rams. Wait...I...I mean, the players who make up the team are OK, but I don't like them as a whole. Well...ummmm...it's not like I wouldn't go to group therapy with them, I just don't like the way they play. Now that we got that straight...

Dallas (-5.5) at Cleveland
Mark my words, the Browns are this year's 2007 New York Jets. I can definitely see 5-11 or 6-10.

Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco
I know a lot of people who think that the 49ers are going to make a big jump this year. After looking at their roster and recent history, I think it's going to be right off the Golden Gate Bridge.

Carolina (+9.5) at San Diego
That's just too much cushion on opening weekend for a team not named the New England Patriots......

Chicago at Indianapolis (-9.5)
......or the Indianapolis Colts.

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay
Let's just say that the post-Brett Favre era doesn't get off to such a rousing start.

Denver (-3) at Oakland
Before the 2006 draft, I told everyone who would listen that Jay Cutler, not Vince Young or Matt Leinart, would be the best quarterback of that class. While it's still very early in their careers, I see the Denver quarterback making much bigger strides than either of other two.