The Doc's Week Seventeen Picks
I've always hated week 17 in
the NFL. First, it signals the near-end of the football season. Second,
it's difficult enough to pick games against the spread, but doing it
when you have first-teamers playing second string players for teams that
have clinched playoff spots makes it even more so. On the other hand,
I've had a terrible year picking games, so maybe I should be thankful
that the agony is almost over.
Picks appear in bold.
Indianapolis (+8) at
Buffalo
It's not that I was impressed with Curtis Painter's Keystone Cops
impression last week, but I'm just not sure that the Bills can can cover
an eight point spread against anyone right now.
New Orleans at
Carolina (-6)
The Saints haven't been playing well to begin with, and now they
face one of the hottest running teams in the league over the last month
without a lot of their starters: Brees, Colston, and Sharper, just to
name a few.
Jacksonville (+1.5)
at Cleveland
I realize the Jags have been pretty bad on the road, but Cleveland?!?!
Really?!?!
Chicago (-3) at
Detroit
With the Bears' up-and-down play this year, I really don't feel
comfortable with this pick. However, I just found out that the Lions are
planning to start Daunte Culpepper - 'nuff said.
New England (+8)
at Houston
I like the Texans to win this game, and for that reason, I think Bill
Belichick leaves his starters in for most, if not all, of it. In
addition, I've seen Houston in this situation before (a chance to turn
the corner and make a splash), and they usually don't react well.
Pittsburgh (-3) at
Miami
I just can't see the Dolphins mounting that much of an offensive threat
against the Steelers. Moreover, Pittsburgh still has something to play
for, and I think they'll play their best game of the season.
New York Giants at
Minnesota (-7.5)
I know the Vikings have been struggling, but if we learned anything
from last week, it's that the Giants have quit on the season. Seriously,
if they can't get up for the last game ever in Giants Stadium, how could
I possibly expect them to make it a game against a ticked off Minnesota
bunch?
San Francisco at St.
Louis (+8)
I know this looks funny, but there's two reasons for it. First,
since their season-opening win at Arizona, the 49ers have lost seven
straight road games. On the other hand, while the Rams have lost every
home game this year, they've lost the last four by just over six points
per game, a string that includes three teams that are better than San
Francisco: New Orleans, Arizona, and Houston.
Atlanta (-1.5) at
Tampa Bay
It's true, the Bucs have been playing much better recently. But, the
Falcons are getting healthy and would like to end a disappointing season
with a good performance.
Philadelphia (+3)
at Dallas
If this game didn't mean anything to the Eagles, I might go the other
way. However, since the division title and number two seed in the NFC
are up for grabs, I have to go with the better team. I like Donovan
McNabb and DeSean Jackson to have big days.
Green Bay at Arizona
(-3)
Like Philadelphia, the Cardinals still have something to play
for - the number two seed in the NFC conference. Contrary to popular
belief, so do the Packers. I've heard a lot of stories out of Green Bay
about resting players, but I have no idea why. They currently have the
tiebreaker over Dallas and have to win to nail down the fifth spot. Look
at it this way, would you rather play in Arizona (probable for fifth
seed) in the first round of the playoffs or Philadelphia or Minnesota
(probable for sixth seed).
Kansas City (+13)
at Denver
Simply put, I don't think the Broncos are 13 points better than anyone
right now - never mind without Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.
Baltimore at Oakland
(+11)
Call this one a hunch. The Raiders have already beaten a better team
from the east coast (Philadelphia) this year, and while I don't think
they'll win, it will take everything the Ravens have to solidify a spot
in the playoffs.
Washington at
San Diego (-3.5)
The Chargers announced that Billy Volek will get significant
playing time in this game, but I don't even think he can blow this one.
Between the Redskins playing out a wasted season, traveling all the way
across the country when they'd rather be cleaning out their lockers, and
playing a physically superior team in almost every facet, I just can't
see them keeping it close.
Tennessee (-4.5)
at Seattle
I love this spread for one reason: the Titans are going to do everything
possible to get Chris Johnson to two or three milestones: 2,000 yards in
a season; 2,108 rushing yards in a season (Eric Dickerson's single
season rushing record); 2,429 total yards from scrimmage (Marshall
Faulk's single season record).
Cincinnati (+9.5)
at New York Jets
Personally, that's just way too many points for a very mediocre team
being led by a rookie quarterback, regardless of how much the Bengals'
starters play.
Last Week:
7-9
Season: 125-112-3
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