The Doc's Divisional Picks
Well, a very disappointing
year was followed up by a disappointing Wild Card weekend. After getting
both picks right on Saturday, I was beaten by both the Patriots and
Packers' defense not showing up on Sunday.
New England's no-show last
week has brought about a lot of talk of the demise of Bill Belichick and
company. First of all, everyone has to remember the losses they've had
on the coaching staff and roster in the last few years. Think about it,
the key to the Patriots defense is a set of smart, athletic linebackers,
and they've lost all four from their Super Bowl years, with Tedy Bruschi
and Mike Vrabel being the biggest. It would be difficult for any team to
rebound from the turnover they've had. Second, they're getting old -
especially on the offensive line. However, they've already started
rebuilding both, and if there's one thing I've seen since Belichick took
over as Pats' boss, nobody's been better in the draft or free agency and
as long as you have Tom Brady at the helm, I wouldn't count on them
being down too long.
Now, on to this week's
picks....
Picks appear in bold.
Arizona (+7) at New
Orleans
I've been telling people since late October that if New Orleans got home
field advantage through the playoffs, they would be overwhelming
favorites to get to the Super Bowl. It's just way too difficult to beat
that crowd and the Saints at the same time. That being
said, Drew Brees and company are not the same team that they were in
October. In almost every facet of the game, they've regressed as a team,
especially on defense. Granted, I think they'll still win, but it will
be much closer than it should be.
Baltimore (+7) at
Indianapolis
This pick is based on two opinions. First, I think the Ravens can run
very effectively against the Colts. The three-headed monster of Ray
Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'Ron McClain will be able to pound the ball
against the smaller front seven of Indianapolis. Second, Baltimore is
one of the few teams that's capable of putting Peyton Manning on the
ground. If there's one thing we've seen in his career, it's that Manning
gets flustered with pressure and he will make mistakes. On a side note,
the Colts have historically struggled after resting people down the
stretch. Their passing game, which is based solely on timing, gets rusty
after not playing meaningful snaps for three or four weeks. Remember,
their only Super Bowl in the Manning era came when they had to play
everyone down the stretch - in 2006, when they tried, unsuccessfully, to
get a bye in the first round.
Dallas at Minnesota
(-2.5)
I know that the Cowboys have become the chic pick in the playoffs,
but they run into one of the two best teams in the league this week. The
Vikings were the best defense against the run from 2006 to 2008, and
only fell to second this year after dealing with some key injuries on
defense and the Starcaps fiasco involving Pat and Kevin Williams. With
most of the guys back in the lineup, don't expect Marion Barber, Felix
Jones, and Tashard Choice to be successful. On the other side, Dallas
will have a hard time getting through the best offensive line in
football to Brett Favre. Because of that, I think Minnesota will be able
to run and throw on Wade Phillips' defense. Lastly, like New Orleans,
the Metrodome gets really, really loud, and I think that will be one of
the differences in the game.
New York Jets at San
Diego (-7)
Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and the Jets have been a great story this
year. The coach's bravado and young quarterback's unflappable nature
give Jets' fans hope for the foreseeable future. However, the Chargers
are the best team in football and nobody is going to beat them until
sometime next season. The NFL's deepest, most talented roster is finally
healthy and running at full throttle under Norv Turner.
Last Week:
2-2
Season: 135-122-3
|
