Home

Draft

Rankings

Picks

Audio/Video

Ask the Doc

Archive

Man, this has been one absolutely crappy year for my picks. In many ways, as much as I hate the season ending, it will be a relief that I won't have to make an ass out of myself on a weekly basis.

Picks appear in bold.

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)
I've heard all the talk of the Jets being a team of destiny, the Colts being ripe for the upset, and that Jim Caldwell was messing with karma when he pulled his starters against New York in week 16. I'm Irish, so I have a tendency to fall into the traps of superstition, but I can't get around the fact that Indianapolis has Peyton Manning and that they just beat the Baltimore Ravens, 20-3. Most of you are probably wondering what the hell does that have to do with the price of tea in China. My reasoning: the Ravens and Jets are very similar teams and that game last week wasn't even close.

Think about it, both teams have very good, versatile running games (The Jets were first overall during the season and the Ravens 5th). Indy held Baltimore and the hottest running back in football, Ray Rice, to only 87 yards rushing last week. This allowed them to control the time of possession with Manning spending almost 34 minutes on the field. If that happens on Sunday, this game is over. Next, both teams have young quarterbacks who are simply asked to "manage" games and not turn the ball over. The Colts did everything possible to make sure that they put the ball in Joe Flacco's hands and it worked (48.4 quarterback rating and two interceptions). Personally, I don't see Mark Sanchez doing any better. If you want to beat the Colts, you have to trust your quarterback and allow him to throw the ball early.

The only chance the Jets have is if they get to Manning often and create some turnovers. It's something that everyone talks about doing, even the Ravens last week, but can rarely accomplish. Neither team thrived on sacking the quarterback in the regular season (Ravens and Jets both had 32, tied for 18th) and most of New York's cam from the secondary. If this is the only way they can get pressure on Peyton and Co., he will pick them apart. As for turnovers, both teams were good, ranking seventh and eighth overall, but Baltimore had a big advantage in turnover margin. Last week's result, the Colts won that statistical category as well, 4-1.

Bottom line: the Jets can only play one way right now, because they're limited by their quarterback on offense and there's no reason to change what they do defensively. Unfortunately, as we found out last week in the divisional round, it plays right into the hands of Indianapolis. I like the Colts to win big, very big.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)
I think this has the potential to be the best game of the year, maybe even one of the best games of all time. Each of these teams have aggressive, explosive offenses led by great quarterbacks, defenses that are able to take chances because of their potent offenses, and special teams that can drive a dagger deep in the heart of the opposition with momentum changing type returns (of course, this may be affected by the health of Percy Harvin, which is still up in the air at the time I made these picks).

I like the Saints when their offense is matched up against the Vikings' defense. Drew Brees is smart enough to neutralize Minnesota's pass rush by getting rid of the ball early. Because of the speed and size of the New Orleans' receivers, they'll have the ability to make plays after the catch. The absence of E.J. Henderson will spark the less-publicized, yet equally impressive running Saints' running game. I think they'll be very balanced, efficient offense, and will put up a lot of points on the Vikings.

You could almost say the same thing for the Vikings' offense against the Saints' defense. However, there are a couple of concerns with Minnesota. First, if they intend to win, Adrian Peterson has to have a huge game, which is something he hasn't done since a week 10 win over the Lions. If they fall behind, he will become less relevant, and this simply can't happen. Second, Brett Favre has played the smartest football I've ever seen him play for an entire season. On a lesser scale, we saw him do the same thing in 2007, and how did that season end? You got it, with a terrible performance in the NFC Championship game, when he reverted to ol' Brett "Rocketball" Favre. If this plays out, the most opportunistic secondary in football, led by Darren Sharper, will make him miserable.

Lastly, about halfway through the season, I told anyone who would listen that, between New Orleans and Minnesota, whoever had the home-field throughout the playoffs was going to the Super Bowl. Both teams have a much more pronounced advantage because of the crowd noise generated in those noisy domes than any other team. The phrase "electric atmosphere" will not do this weekend's scene in the Superdome justice. More than the team being on the doorstep of its first Super Bowl appearance, or finally repaying the fans for their years of suffering through bad year after bad year, in many ways this will be (excuse the overly dramatic, corny rhetoric) the rebirth of New Orleans as a whole. Very few of us can understand what that city has gone through over the past four and a half years, and hopefully, we never will. All of these factors will add up to the biggest advantage for a home team that we've ever seen - a perfect storm, if you will.
 

Last Week:    1-3
Season:         136-125-3