The Doc's Week Five Picks
I've always felt as though I've had a
pretty good grasp on betting the spread on NFL games. But, I have to
admit that even this run surprises me. Since week one, the Doc (and yes,
I did just refer to myself in the third person) has been 32-14 against
the number. At this point, I'm asking my wife for every dime we have so
I can go to Vegas and make us rich - of course, let's just say she's
slightly less optimistic than I am.
OK, OK, I've been doing this long enough
to know that the valley is coming soon, but let me tell you, the view
from the mountaintop looks pretty good.
Now c'mon honey, let's go see if you've
got some more change in your purse.
Picks appear
in bold.
Minnesota (-10) at
St. Louis
Adrian Peterson versus the 24th ranked defense against the run. Stephen
Jackson versus the 9th ranked defense against the run. The Vikings have
Brett Favre. The Rams have Kyle Boller. If you need any more reasons,
you must be an overly optimistic St. Louis fan.
Dallas (-7.5) at
Kansas City
If Tony Romo doesn't play well against this defense, it may be time to
re-evaluate the quarterback position. Unfortunately for the Cowboys,
they don't have a backup worth playing on a full time basis.
Washington at Carolina
(-4)
The Panthers finally get off the schneid against the worst 2-2 team
I've ever seen. I feel bad for Jim Zorn. He's like Old Yeller - you know
he's going to get it in the end, you just don't know when or how.
Tampa Bay at
Philadelphia (-15)
As much as I liked Josh Johnson coming out of college, there's just
no way I can expect him to keep this one close with a shortage of
weapons against Jim Johnson disciple Sean McDermott's aggressive
defense. Wow, that was one long sentence - I'm out of breath after just
typing it.
Oakland at New York
Giants (-15.5)
I hate this game. I hate this spread. I hate the fact that I may
have to rely on David Carr to be the difference between winning and
losing. However, after seeing the Raiders firsthand last week, there's
just no way I can count on them to do anything right now.
Cleveland at Buffalo
(-6)
I have only one prediction for this game - it will be the worst, and
certainly most boring, game of the weekend.
Cincinnati at
Baltimore (-8)
Hell hath no fury like Ray Lewis scorned. Seriously, the Bengals
have been a good story and are one fluke play away from being
undefeated, but I think the Ravens will be extremely motivated after a
disappointing and controversial loss to the Pats last week.
Pittsburgh (-10.5)
at Detroit
Is there really any explanation needed here?
Atlanta (+2.5) at
San Francisco
The 49ers are 3-1 with all three wins coming against poor NFC West
opponents. They played well against the Vikings, but I just don't think
they've got the offense to put away a good team with a balanced offense
like the Falcons.
New England (-3)
at Denver
I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Broncos, but they've
shown no signs of letting up. Their defense has been spectacular and,
like everyone else, they'll be able to put pressure on Tom Brady. In the
end, though, I think this is the week that Brady and Randy Moss start to
get it together.
Houston (+5.5) at
Arizona
I'm somewhat baffled about the spread for this game. The Texans'
defensive woes have been in the running game, but it doesn't matter
because the Cardinals can't run it. On the flip side, no team is worse
against the pass than Arizona and Houston's passing game is one of the
best in the league. Not only will they cover, but I think Matt Schaub,
Andre Johnson, and company pull out the win.
Jacksonville (+2)
at Seattle
Another NFC West-AFC South battle, with the Jags having to travel as far
as anyone ever has in the NFL. However, I like the way their running
game is rounding into shape and David Garrard, as usual, isn't doing
anything spectacular, but is efficient enough to get the win.
Indianapolis (-3.5)
at Tennessee
I know this spread screams out "trap game", and maybe I'm idiotic to
fall for it. However, after seeing the way the Titans have played
against the pass since the opening game, I can't see how they can keep
Peyton Manning from absolutely lighting them up.
New York Jets (-2)
at Miami
If you've been following along this season, you'll know that this is the
first time I've bet the Jets' side. I really like the matchup between
Rex Ryan's defense and Chad Henne, who's making his second career start.
Trust me, Henne is going to be good. Honestly, I felt as though he would
have been a better option for the Dolphins last year. However, the Jets
are going to load up against the run and force him to beat them. I just
don't think he can do it at this point.
Last Week:
10-4
Season: 39-23
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