The Doc's Week Nine Picks
It's time to break the
silence, people! Yes, I had a winning record last week, but only by a
smidge, and besides, I miss talking to you guys. Truthfully, I finally
have the time to give some crappy commentary to my surprisingly good
picks. I've had a few people ask me over the years how I've done so well
in picking games without "a system", and of course, they're surprised
when I tell them I just go by feel. In today's NFL, I think it's a huge
mistake to rely on numbers alone. Most of the guys I know that do that
tend to lose a lot more than they win. The game is much too fluid and
unpredictable now to go by some sort of rules or rankings scales.
It's not like I'm throwing
darts at a board, though. Obviously, I follow the game and look for
certain matchups, but other than that, there's not a whole lot of method
to my madness. If nothing else, my "fly-by-the-seat-of-my-pants" picking
style keeps you guys coming back week after week.
Picks appear
in bold.
Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5)
I don't particularly care for either side on this one, but I do like
Maurice Jones-Drew against the Chiefs' 26th ranked rushing defense. Look
for "Pocket Hercules" to have a huge day against Kansas City....as long
as Jack Del Rio actually gives him the ball.
Baltimore (-3) at
Cincinnati
I know, I know, the Bengals just beat the Ravens on the road a month
ago, but I still am slow in grasping that the Bengals are a good team.
Obviously, Cedric Benson has been huge in balancing the offense, but
losing Antwan Odom is really going to hurt the defense against a
high-scoring Ravens' offense. Wow, I really have a hard time saying
that.
Houston (+9) at
Indianapolis
To be honest, I'm really surprised at the line on this game. The Texans,
specifically the defense, have been incredibly impressive over the past
month and the Colts haven't played anyone (their opponents have a 17-29
combined record and they played only one winning team during that
stretch). If I had to pick a winner, I'd go with the Colts, but I
wouldn't be too comfortable with it.
Washington at Atlanta
(-9)
With all of the bad teams in the NFL right now, the Redskins very
well might be the worst. Their two wins have come against St. Louis and
Tampa Bay, at home, by a combined five points. Couple that with Michael
Turner finally appearing as though he's back against a tough Saints'
defense on Monday night, and this one has blowout written all over it.
Green Bay (-9.5)
at Tampa Bay
The only thing uglier than the final score in this game will be the "creamsicle"
retro-uniforms the Bucs will be wearing, complete with the "ambiguous"
pirate on the side of the helmet. Seriously, this may be the worst idea
in the league this season.
Arizona at Chicago
(-3)
Could there be two more up-and-down teams in football than the two
that will meet at Soldier Field this weekend? At times, the Cardinals
have looked like they could challenge for the NFC title and the next
weekend, they look as though they can't win the lowly NFC West title. On
the other hand, Jay Cutler doesn't appear to be comfortable in his new
digs. I like Chicago because they've won their home games by a combined
103-63.
Miami (+10.5) at
New England
Everything tells me to take the Pats in this game, but I just have a
hunch that the Dolphins will keep this one close. The two-headed monster
of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams has looked very good recently and
they had a couple of really good games against New England last year.
Carolina at New
Orleans (-13)
I was tempted to take the Panthers here, but I remembered that if
the Saints get off to a fast start, I'd have to rely on Jake Delhomme to
keep it close. No thanks!
Detroit at Seattle
(-10)
First of all, I think the Seahawks are slightly better than their
record. Second, I don't like the Lions in any game where they have to
travel across the country. Hell, I don't like them in games where they
have to travel across the street.
Tennessee (+5) at
San Francisco
My better judgment tells me that I'm making a bad call here, but I just
can't help but think the Titans are going to go on a little run here.
Starting last week, they've got a string of five straight winnable games
and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take four of them.
San Diego at New York
Giants (-3.5)
There are a lot of parallels between these two teams. One, they've
both beaten all of the bad teams on their schedule and lost to all of
the good ones. San Diego's wins have come against teams that are a
combined 8-22 and the Giants' aren't much better at 10-26. On the other
hand, New York's losses have come against teams that tally a 16-5 record
and the Chargers' are at 15-6. Two, they've both been incredibly
underwhelming overall. I thought both teams would be at the top of their
respective conferences, but halfway in, it appears as though both will
struggle to make the playoffs, if at all. In the end, I'll go with the
team that's at home and needs it more.
Dallas at Philadelphia
(-3)
Sure, Tony Romo and the Cowboys' offense has looked better as of
late. However, did you know it was against three of the worst passing
defenses in the league - Kansas City (28th), Atlanta (31st), and Seattle
(18th)? I wouldn't expect the same performance against the aggressive,
hard-hitting Eagles. In my opinion, there's a good chance this one's not
even close.
Pittsburgh (-3) at
Denver
I can definitely see the Broncos coming back down to Earth a bit as the
schedule gets harder. Over the next six weeks, they've got games against
the Steelers, Chargers, Giants, and Colts. For the most part, Josh
McDaniels had them in serious "overachievement mode" during the first
six weeks of the season, but the schedule will eventually even that out.
Last Week:
7-6
Season: 66-49-1
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