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The Ultimate Source for your Ph.D. in Pigskin |
The Doc's Conference Championship Picks Man, this has been one absolutely crappy year for my picks. In many ways, as much as I hate the season ending, it will be a relief that I won't have to make an ass out of myself on a weekly basis.
I cannot remember being this excited for a Super Bowl for some time. Sure, there was a "rush" two years ago when the Patriots were going for a perfect season, but who really thought that the Giants had a shot at winning. This, year, we have two teams who can light up the scoreboard and have two very underrated defenses that are very good at doing what they do best. Offensively, two of the best and most statistically impressive quarterbacks in this era take the field opposite each other. Sunday will be the best matchup of signal-callers we've had since 1998, when John Elway took on Brett Favre. When the Saints have the ball, I give them a big advantage in the running game. New Orleans ranks sixth in that category, while the Colts defense gives up over 126 yards per game, which is incredibly high when you consider that most teams end up having to throw the ball for most of the second half against Indianapolis. I see the combination of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush having big days. This will really open things up for Drew Brees. The biggest problem for the Colts in this game, versus the opponents they've played so far this postseason, is that they haven't faced a team that could hurt you in so many ways. They simply won't be able to load up for the run they way they did against the Ravens and Jets. I have to admit that what makes this prediction a little easier is the knowledge that, at best, Dwight Freeney will probably be an ineffective third down specialist. In my opinion, the performance of the Colts' offense versus Saints' defense will decide this game. As stated above, the Saints will be able to put up points, and the lack of an Indianapolis running game will make things very difficult for Peyton Manning. The Saints don't play a "bend, but don't break" style, which is what Manning absolutely destroys week in and week out. Instead, Gregg Williams realizes that with Sean Payton's offense, he can take chances and his players have responded. New Orleans will consistently be able to drop seven into coverage, and while you may say, "well that's what people do all of the time against the Colts", and you're right, other teams aren't able to make opposing teams pay for their mistakes as much as the Saints. Led by Darren Sharper, the defensive backfield is opportunistic to say the least. They were second only to Green Bay in takeaways (39) and first in returning turnovers for scores. If the get any pressure on Manning and force into making bad throws, this one's over. Still, I give the matchup slightly to the Colts, because I simply don't bet against Peyton Manning. On special teams, I give the a big check to the Saints. While both teams are even in coverage units and the Colts have a slight edge in the punter and place kicker departments, New Orleans has a couple of returners in Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby that are difference-makers. One or both of these two could have a Desmond Howard-type affect on this game. I don't think either team has a huge advantage in coaching. Jim Caldwell could have easily walked in, stuck out his chest, and yelled that things were going to be done his way from now on. Instead, he and his staff were smart enough to realize that they have a system in place that has worked for years. On the other hand, Sean Payton should be admired for rebuilding one of the worst franchises in all of sports. In addition, his move to take a pay cut so that he could bring in Gregg Williams paid off in performance, but also in the minds of the coaches and players. They realized that he was going to do anything and everything to bring the Crescent City a championship. The biggest advantage in this game will be in the intangibles. Outside of Indianapolis and some very ardent supporters of Peyton Manning, the rest of the country will be rooting for the Saints. Don't be surprised if Sun Life Stadium truly looks like a home game for New Orleans. In addition, since 2006, we've seen firsthand how impassioned the Saints play in big games. Whether it was the Monday Night game against the Falcons when the Superdome reopened in 2006 or the primetime tilt against the Patriots this season, Drew Brees and company know how to play when the lights are the brightest. The only way this could turn against them is if the weight of it all - the expectations, carrying an entire region on their backs, etc. - finally comes down upon them, but I don't see it happening in what should be a culmination to the rebirth of New Orleans. New Orleans 34, Indianapolis 30. Last Week:
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