The Doc's Week One Picks
Well everybody, it's
that time again. Football is back and it's time to make some....ummmm....Diet
Cokes. Yeah, that's it, Diet Cokes. Of course, we don't promote gambling
at doctorfootball.com, but if you've been known to throw down a couple
sodas on a game here and there, it certainly makes you a valued part of
the community.
Each week, we'll go
through every game and offer a prediction, backed by statistical
analysis, matchups, and sometimes, simply a hunch. Either way, we always
end up on the plus side and have a lot of fun in the process.
So let's all sit
back, grab the remote, and enjoy the game that makes us all look forward
to September.
Picks appear
in bold.
Tennessee at
Pittsburgh (-5.5)
If you're a student of the game, this pick shouldn't come as too
much of a surprise. Since 2004, the opening Thursday night game has been
hosted by the defending champion, and they win big. Whether it's the
emotion, the fans, the banner, or something else, the visiting teams are
simply lambs being led to slaughter and the Titans will find out tonight
how much they'll miss Albert Haynesworth anchoring that defensive line.
Miami (+4) at
Atlanta
I like the Falcons' offense, and they should be able to move the ball
against the Dolphins. On the flip side, their defense is terrible, where
even Chad Pennington's pop-gun arm should be able to keep it close.
New York Jets at
Houston (-4.5)
Everyone's talking about Rex Ryan and his scheme, but you have to
have the players to run it. Unfortunately for Jets' fans, I don't see
the talent base to make it even resemble the Ravens. In addition, though
the Texans' defense has looked bad in the preseason, they'll have enough
to make rookie Matt Sanchez's first start a bad one.
Detroit at New Orleans
(-13)
I know the season is just starting, and there's a lot of things we
don't know about most of the teams, but this feels like Christmas in
September. I'd jump at the chance to take the Saints minus 20.
Denver at Cincinnati
(-4)
This game is hard to get a read on for a few reasons. First, Kyle
Orton hasn't made a believer out of me and if he and Brandon Marshall
don't gel quickly, this could be an extremely long season for Denver.
Second, the Broncos' defense has looked much faster and more active than
in the past, but it's hard for me to believe that they can turn it
around that quickly. Lastly, the Bengals will be better this year, I'm
just not sure how much.
Kansas City at
Baltimore (-12.5)
Don't get me wrong, I think losing Rex Ryan and Bart Scott will hurt
the overall effectiveness of the Ravens' defense, but with the
playmakers they have on that side of the ball, there are a lot of high
school defensive coordinators that could make them look pretty good.
Also, if Matt Cassell can't go for this one, it could get very, very
ugly.
Dallas (-5.5) at
Tampa Bay
It's not that I think the Cowboys are going to be good (check out the
season predictions), but I don't know if there's a team in the NFL that
will make a bigger fall than the Bucs from 2008 to 2009. The quarterback
play will be sub-standard and the defense that we've all become so
accustomed to in Tampa will be a shell of its former self.
Minnesota (-3.5)
at Cleveland
We'll find out in week one if Brad Childress can keep Brett Favre under
control. There's no reason the Vikings should throw more than 20 to 22
passes on Sunday, and if they do, it will have everything to do with
Favre calling audibles or Childress succumbing to number four's ego.
Philadelphia (-1.5)
at Carolina
It's a shame that this game isn't on Monday night (over the two duds
that were selected), because I think it has a chance to be the best of
the weekend. I like the Eagles in a close one because, without Mike Vick
as an option, Donovan McNabb will be comfortable knowing that he's the
only one taking snaps.
Jacksonville at
Indianapolis (-7)
I've heard a lot of people saying that Jacksonville will be much
improved this year, and possibly a surprise team. I can tell you that
with two rookie tackles, that's not going to happen. As a microcosm of
the season, look for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to have a field
day against Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.
St. Louis at Seattle
(-7.5)
Outside of St. Louis and Seattle, do you think that anyone would
notice if this game wasn't played? I can't think of a more "milk-toast"
game in week one. Seriously, why don't we just ask the NFL to let Madden
'10 to play this one out on a PS3 or something?
Washington at New York
Giants (-6.5)
In my opinion, the Giants have the best rotation of defensive
lineman in the game, and I don't think it's even really that close.
Between them making Jason Campbell's life miserable and Brandon Jacobs
running over LaRon Landry again, New York will win this one
convincingly.
San Francisco at
Arizona (-6)
For those of you who have been regulars at the website, you know how
much I like and respect Mike Singletary. However, the schedule isn't
kind to the 49ers this year and it starts off in the desert against a
team motivated to prove that last year was no fluke.
Chicago at Green Bay
(-3.5)
There's a good chance that the two quarterbacks in this game will be
Pro-Bowlers in February. Aaron Rodgers is going to have a breakout year
and Jay Cutler will need just a little time to get acclimated to his new
receivers. I give the Packers the edge because of the home-field
advantage, and the defense quickly adjusting to the aggressiveness of
Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme.
Buffalo at New England
(-10.5)
See notes for Detroit and New Orleans...
Oakland at San Diego
(-9.5)
See notes for Buffalo and New England...
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